While reading this post from Vinod, I really got confused. I am in dilemma between the question of 'war with Pakistan'.
War with Pak: Yes
There is no way Pakistan govt will help finding perpetrators of any terrorist attacks that have happened in India over the past, forget about current Mumbai attacks. This is shown in their blatant act of ignorance that any terrorist activity even does exist in Pakistan at all. Similarity can defined for Pakistan govt with Taliban which did not take any action against Al Qaeda, and now Pak is reluctant to recognise LeT (and group). Pakistan's behavior in this respect is also criminal, giving refuse to other criminals. It is Pakistan's compulsion or urge, we cannot tell. How to pressurize Pakistan is question which is answered by only taking unilateral military action.
We are left with only military action because over the past, any bilateral or multilateral talks involving India and Pakistan, have been failed utterly in achieving the objective. Though one should not be cynical that if talk has been failed in the past, it is bound to fail again. But going with conditions in Pakistan and attitude of its govt, it is safe to assume.
The other way would have been multilateral pressure on Pakistan with the support of USA(may be Israel also). But here again the glitch is at this point of time, favoring India over Pakistan is not in strategic interests of USA. USA would not want to jeopardize its fight with Taliban on Eastern front of Pakistan, which is its high priority and in which it has already invested.
All India is left with, is unilateral action(not talk) on Pakistan which transforms to war.
War with Pak: No
The solution is not so easy. Lets say we go to war with Pakistan.
First of all that is really not direct solution to India's problem. 'War' means war with Pakistan govt which is in fact supporter of terrorists, not the actual culprit which happens to be LeT and Company Inc.
Secondly there is the mess of Taliban. If there is war between Pakistan and India then Pakistan finds itself in pieces. It will be highly unstable because of war from two fronts - Eastern(India) and Western(Taliban). Now again, unstable Pakistan is highly undesirable for India. India may win one war, but will have to face another war.
There maybe a arguments that Taliban will support Pakistan. Really? The given war will be only platform for Taliban to gain solid stand in Pakistan. After Pakistan goes bust, Taliban will rule the left-overs. Taliban is no mere terrorist group, it has a monumental army gathered(80,000 read somewhere).
On top of that, If India goes to war with Pakistan then it will jeopardize its strategic relations with USA because for USA Pakistan is a crucial ally in fight with terrorism. And in this situation when India is vulnerable from three fronts - Pakistan(west), China(Northern border) and internal threats(like naxalism), it will be a blunder to not have USA as an ally. Because at this point of time, on international front only USA is strong ally for India.
The Question
What should be India's response, as foreign strategy, to Mumbai Terror attacks?
still remain unanswered.
War with Pak: Yes
There is no way Pakistan govt will help finding perpetrators of any terrorist attacks that have happened in India over the past, forget about current Mumbai attacks. This is shown in their blatant act of ignorance that any terrorist activity even does exist in Pakistan at all. Similarity can defined for Pakistan govt with Taliban which did not take any action against Al Qaeda, and now Pak is reluctant to recognise LeT (and group). Pakistan's behavior in this respect is also criminal, giving refuse to other criminals. It is Pakistan's compulsion or urge, we cannot tell. How to pressurize Pakistan is question which is answered by only taking unilateral military action.
We are left with only military action because over the past, any bilateral or multilateral talks involving India and Pakistan, have been failed utterly in achieving the objective. Though one should not be cynical that if talk has been failed in the past, it is bound to fail again. But going with conditions in Pakistan and attitude of its govt, it is safe to assume.
The other way would have been multilateral pressure on Pakistan with the support of USA(may be Israel also). But here again the glitch is at this point of time, favoring India over Pakistan is not in strategic interests of USA. USA would not want to jeopardize its fight with Taliban on Eastern front of Pakistan, which is its high priority and in which it has already invested.
All India is left with, is unilateral action(not talk) on Pakistan which transforms to war.
War with Pak: No
The solution is not so easy. Lets say we go to war with Pakistan.
First of all that is really not direct solution to India's problem. 'War' means war with Pakistan govt which is in fact supporter of terrorists, not the actual culprit which happens to be LeT and Company Inc.
Secondly there is the mess of Taliban. If there is war between Pakistan and India then Pakistan finds itself in pieces. It will be highly unstable because of war from two fronts - Eastern(India) and Western(Taliban). Now again, unstable Pakistan is highly undesirable for India. India may win one war, but will have to face another war.
There maybe a arguments that Taliban will support Pakistan. Really? The given war will be only platform for Taliban to gain solid stand in Pakistan. After Pakistan goes bust, Taliban will rule the left-overs. Taliban is no mere terrorist group, it has a monumental army gathered(80,000 read somewhere).
On top of that, If India goes to war with Pakistan then it will jeopardize its strategic relations with USA because for USA Pakistan is a crucial ally in fight with terrorism. And in this situation when India is vulnerable from three fronts - Pakistan(west), China(Northern border) and internal threats(like naxalism), it will be a blunder to not have USA as an ally. Because at this point of time, on international front only USA is strong ally for India.
The Question
What should be India's response, as foreign strategy, to Mumbai Terror attacks?
still remain unanswered.
Posts
6 comments:
5 December 2008 at 20:39
Thr r a few other probs which pakistan is currently facing .. we actually need to understand the big picture here .. the extremists are spread from west to east in pak .. so, any act of pak govt. against these ppl will raise the tensions in the normal public and a few will really take advantage of this situation to de-stabilise pak .. then it wud be really hard to face the already alarming situation thr .. so, i thk the plan wud be to follow a step by step procedure .. remember .. they dont disclose everythin to media .. even we need to understand the scenario here .. more publicity might lead to destruction here .. remember .. do u thk US wil just watch wats happening ..
5 December 2008 at 22:01
You forgot one of the most important points against war - nuclear weapons. It is not good for the whole world to have two nations with nuclear weapons fight.
6 December 2008 at 10:53
@hellboy
welcome and thanks...
I agree that Pak is already destabilized. We, as India, should not care about that unless it has any effect on us.(It is cruel stance but it is foreign policy). SO if destabilization of Pak affects us, then yes we need to take it into consideration.
Secondly step by step procedures have been taken in past resulting in no valuable result except pause and resume of bus/train services from India to Pak.
Thirdly, again US will care anything only if it affects its fight with Taliban. If it sees, that Taliban is getting hurt in the scenario then it will prefer it that way. But no, in given scenario, Pak govt faces threat from Taliban, that is why Rice is making rounds :)
@anonymous
I don't think question of nuclear war will arise unless Taliban get power into hand. Pak govt understands clearly that India is bigger nuclear state. But we cannot trust Taliban's recklessness.
7 December 2008 at 08:48
@ all:
On a light hearted note,
the US are such low-IQ morons that they might end up attacking either
1) India (for dempography of terorist activity ..forgetting that she is the victim)
or
2) Pakistan (for giving them competition in global moron -giri)
**On a serious note**
Pakistan is already in anarchy !!!! Please dont pre-assume that extremists are sitting on their sofas now and eating pop-corn waiting for pak govt to hit them so that they kick back !!!
You are talking of a national system here which was iron handedly take over by Musharaff (against a trained national guard) in 2000 ...so taking authoritative action against extremists NOW (use ISI for something fruitful than ego clashes with india! ) while they are still disorganized will curb the bud ...
ps: no offence meant ... but u dont do step-by-step procedures when a mad dog bites you ...you take an injection immediately !
18 April 2009 at 03:24
WHAT DO YOU LOT THINK PAKISTAN WILL LOSE AND INDIA WIN READ THE FACTS BEFORE YOU MAKE ANY STATEMENTS. INDIA A FUTURE SUPERPOWER WHAT A JOKE WHEN 80% OF COUNTRY IS POOR AND IN WHOLE OF INDIA ONLY INDIAN GOVERNMENT HAS CONTROL OF 55% OF COUNTRY. INDIA WILL NEVER BE A SUPERPOWER AS CANNOT PRODUCE WEAPONS (SMALL AND HEAVY) OF THERE OWN EVEN WITH OUTSIDE HELP UNLIKE PAKISTAN. INDIANS ARE ALWAYS THINKING THEY ARE BIGGER THEN THEY REALLY ARE. OK STOP THIS CRAP WHY DO NOT INDIA ATTACK PAKISTAN BECAUSE IT CAN'T EVEN YOUR OWN GENERALS AND COMMENTATORS ARE SAYING THIS. THIS IS NOT BOLLYWOOD. ALSO WHEN YOU CHOSE RUSSIA OVER USA AND KNOW PAKISTAN CHOSE CHINA AND YOU CHOSE USA AGAIN YOU CHOOSE THE WRONG SIDE. PAKISTAN ZINDABAD
19 April 2009 at 13:43
@Imtiyaz
Hello Imtiyaz, thanks a lot for comment, I am pleased even a brother from Pakistan has commented on my little blog.
1.
I think you have taken my post in wrong sense and wrong spirit.
I am not talking about India's domination over Paksitan or even vice versa. I havn't concluded anything on winning side and India being superpower. (maybe you have read some other blog, and are commenting on my blog :D).
2.
Secondly, 80% of India is not poor. You can refer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_Pakistan and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_line_in_India to get your facts straight.
Paksitan's condition is not better at all from India. On top of the fact, that world considers it as failed state. Of course its not Pakistani people who are to blame, the politicians and army have made it the state a mess.
3.
I too don't think India can become a super power in near future.
4.
I don't know about others, but at least I don't think India is bigger than it is. But, yes, we do dream about becoming big. And that doesn't mean dominating Pakistan or even any other country. That means bringing progress in country.
5.
See choosing nations as allies is a part of strategic importance. I am not very skilled in it. But I can logically think. USA is a big economic power and allying with it, in matters of economy and nuclear proliferation, is in interests of India.
Both countries(India and Pakistan) Zindabad!! :)
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